Sobre la interpretación de la cuenta corriente

Abstract

The interpretation of the current account of the balance of payments often causes discussion. This is not surprising since data must be seen in the context of the expectations that the agents and the analyst entertain. This paper presents a simple intertemporal model as a reference which may help to evaluate the equilibrium response of the current account and related variables to different impulses. It is then argued that “un precedented” shocks may induce agents to form inconsistent beliefs, and particulary to hold biased wealth perceptions, with repercussions on the current account. The paper discusses some scenarios of this type.