http://hdl.handle.net/11651/15 2026-07-12T09:30:44Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6648 Airbnbs against criminals: the effect of Airbnb on crime in Mexico City This thesis analyzes the effect that Airbnb listings have on crime in Mexico City. Using a monthly panel dataset from March 2019 to March 2020 and a shift-share instrumental variables strategy, the study finds that an increase in Airbnb listings has a statistically significant negative effect on property crime. Specifically, a 1% increase in entire-property listings is estimated to reduce property crimes by approximately 1.09%. The findings suggest that this reduction is driven by enhanced informal surveillance and increased local economic activity, which contrasts with the effect of general tourism that is positively associated with crime. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6631 Default risk assessment in Mexican corporations: empirical validation of the Merton-Löffler model This work evaluates the applicability of the Merton–Löffler structural credit risk model to Mexican publicly traded companies, examining its potential to complement traditional credit assessments in emerging markets. By conceptualizing corporate equity as a call option on firm assets and estimating unobservable parameters through Löffler’s iterative methodology, the study finds that the model captures relevant patterns of relative credit risk, albeit with only moderate alignment to rating agency classifications. While short-term predictive accuracy remains limited, the model exhibits some capacity to reflect longer-term credit dynamics consistent with theoretical expectations. Overall, the Merton–Löffler framework offers a rigorous and transparent approach for market-based credit risk evaluation in contexts characterized by informational constraints, though its implementation should be viewed as a complementary analytical tool rather than a substitute for comprehensive credit analysis. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6630 Impact of change from the progresa scholarship Program to Benito Juárez on the incidence of teenage pregnancy in Mexico This thesis analyzes the impact of Mexico’s 2019 shift from the integrated Prospera program to the education-focused Becas Benito Juárez (BBJ) on teenage pregnancy. Using municipal-level data from 2007 to 2023, it applies a Difference-in-Differences design and an Event Study to estimate causal effects on fertility among women aged 15–19. Findings indicates that municipalities with higher pre-reform program coverage experienced a 15% to 19% increase in teenage pregnancies after the transition. Effects are more pronounced in rural and high-marginalization areas and persist over time. These outcomes may be related to the removal of health services and conditionalities that characterized earlier program designs. In particular, the elimination of school attendance requirements could have reduced the opportunity cost of early motherhood. Taken together, the results suggest that scholarship programs integrating education with health components may be more effective in delaying fertility than purely educational transfers. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6604 Alcanzando a la capital: 80 años de desigualdad convergencia regional del producto en México Este estudio analiza la convergencia regional del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) per cápita en México durante el periodo 1940 al 2022, utilizando un enfoque de series de tiempo con datos a nivel regional. A partir de una base de datos original construida para este trabajo, se evalúa la evolución de las brechas regionales de ingreso con respecto a la capital (Ciudad de México y Estado de México) mediante pruebas de raíz unitaria, tanto tradicionales — ADF, DF-GLS, PP, KPSS — como aquellas que permiten quiebres estructurales endógenos — Kapetanios —. Los resultados revelan una alta heterogeneidad entre regiones: mientras algunas muestran procesos de convergencia — particularmente cuando se consideran quiebres estructurales ligados a eventos históricos relevantes — otras presentan trayectorias de divergencia o catching-up débil. Este análisis resalta la importancia de considerar metodologías más flexibles para no sobrestimar los procesos de divergencia y permite asociar los cambios en la brecha con eventos como las reformas económicas de los años ochenta. En términos de política pública, los hallazgos sugieren que la convergencia no ocurre de forma automática, por lo que es necesario implementar estrategias deliberadas para reducir las disparidades estructurales. Esta tesis contribuye a la literatura al actualizar el análisis de convergencia regional en México y al ofrecer herramientas para una mejor interpretación de las dinámicas de desigualdad territorial de largo plazo. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z