http://hdl.handle.net/11651/3195 Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:30:01 GMT 2026-09-06T00:30:01Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6635 Evaluating the predictive power of Mexico’s timely economic activity indicator: real and pseudo real-time performance This paper evaluates the performance of Mexico’s Timely Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE), published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography, as a nowcasting tool for short-term economic activity. Using both real-time evidence (October 2020– December 2024) and a pseudo-real-time comparison with alternative nowcasting approaches over 2018–2024, we assess the IOAE against individual indicators, econometric models, and machine-learning methods. Nowcast accuracy is evaluated using Diebold–Mariano tests with Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent correction, the Superior Predictive Ability test, and the Model Confidence Set procedure. The results indicate that the IOAE consistently belongs to the set of best-performing models and tends to exhibit relatively stronger predictive accuracy, particularly at the two-month-ahead horizon. A comprehensive robustness analysis—covering alternative window schemes, numbers of factors, loss functions, and sample definitions, including evaluations conducted both with and without the COVID-19 period—supports the stability of these findings. Overall, the evidence supports the view that the IOAE provides timely and informative nowcasts of economic activity, reinforcing its usefulness as a complementary tool for short-term economic monitoring in Mexico. Forecast evaluation, IOAE, machine learning, nowcasting, robustness analysis Tue, 24 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6635 2026-03-24T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6619 The effect of different sources of fundining on firm performance: evidence from Chile This study analyses the impact of different funding sources—public and private—on firm’s sales performance, labor productivity, and capital productivity of Chilean firms. We use data from the Chilean Longitudinal Survey of Firms (2013–2019), fixed-effects econometric models were employed for their robustfit and reliability. The findings show that funding through capital and bond issuance positively influences all three performance measures, while supplier credit, non-bank funding, and public funding enhance sales and labor productivity but not capital productivity. Firm characteristics, including age, industrial sector, group affiliation, and export activity, also significantly affect performance, with export activity negatively impacting capital productivity. This research makes a unique contribution by disaggregating funding into distinct categories and addressing a notable gap in Latin American studies, offering detailed insights into the funding-performance relationship in this regional context. Funding, performance, sales, labor productivity, capital productivity Thu, 12 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6619 2026-03-12T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6616 Asymmetric inflation persistence in Latin America: evidence from Chile, Colombia and Peru using quantile autoregression analysis This paper investigates asymmetric inflation persistence in Chile, Colombia and Peru using quantile autoregression on monthly data from 1992–2023. Unlike conventional approaches that assume uniform adjustment speeds, this method captures heterogeneous dynamics across the inflation distribution. Results indicate global stationarity but marked asymmetries: positive shocks display substantially greater persistence than negative ones. The unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected at and above the 60th, 70th, and 80th quantiles for Colombia, Chile, and Peru, respectively, implying that high-inflation episodes endure while negative deviations dissipate quickly. Robustness checks controlling for multiple structural breaks show that persistence declined significantly following the adoption of inflation-targeting regimes and improved macroeconomic management, yet asymmetric patterns remain. Findings are robust to alternative steady-state specifications. The evidence supports asymmetric monetary policy responses and offers practical guidance for central banks. Extended analysis for Brazil confirms the prevalence of these asymmetric dynamics. Inflation dynamics, asymmetric persistence, quantile autoregression, unit root tests, Latin America Wed, 04 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6616 2026-03-04T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6615 Macroeconomic effects of dollarization in El Salvador We examine the effects of dollarization on El Salvador's macroeconomy and test whether they have been consistent with standard theoretical predictions. Our evidence suggests that the answer is mostly affirmative. In particular, consistent with the theory, we find that dollarization reduced both the average inflation rate and inflation volatility in El Salvador. Also consistent with theory, this was accompanied by lower business-cycle volatility and without statistically significant effects on trend growth in El Salvador. Contrary to the "endogeneity" hypothesis, however, El Salvador's originally positive business-cycle correlation with the US decreased (and likely became negative) after dollarization. El Salvador, dollarization, inflation, business cycles Wed, 11 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6615 2026-02-11T00:00:00Z