http://hdl.handle.net/11651/95 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 23:42:58 GMT 2026-04-13T23:42:58Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6635 Evaluating the predictive power of Mexico’s timely economic activity indicator: real and pseudo real-time performance This paper evaluates the performance of Mexico’s Timely Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE), published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography, as a nowcasting tool for short-term economic activity. Using both real-time evidence (October 2020– December 2024) and a pseudo-real-time comparison with alternative nowcasting approaches over 2018–2024, we assess the IOAE against individual indicators, econometric models, and machine-learning methods. Nowcast accuracy is evaluated using Diebold–Mariano tests with Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent correction, the Superior Predictive Ability test, and the Model Confidence Set procedure. The results indicate that the IOAE consistently belongs to the set of best-performing models and tends to exhibit relatively stronger predictive accuracy, particularly at the two-month-ahead horizon. A comprehensive robustness analysis—covering alternative window schemes, numbers of factors, loss functions, and sample definitions, including evaluations conducted both with and without the COVID-19 period—supports the stability of these findings. Overall, the evidence supports the view that the IOAE provides timely and informative nowcasts of economic activity, reinforcing its usefulness as a complementary tool for short-term economic monitoring in Mexico. Forecast evaluation, IOAE, machine learning, nowcasting, robustness analysis Tue, 24 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6635 2026-03-24T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6633 Revista de la Historia de la Economía y de la Empresa La serie de artículos que aquí se presenta aborda la evolución de los medios de pago desde una visión fenomenológica: consideramos que no hay una única respuesta disciplinar al tratamiento de este problema, sino que el fenómeno puede ser explicado desde un punto de vista interdisciplinario. Por esta razón las aportaciones que ofrece este volumen presentan diversidad de enfoques y metodologías. Este volumen recoge estudios de historia financiera y empresarial, de economía empírica, así como de política económica. Todas las investigaciones implican trabajo intensivo con fuentes de archivo, así como métodos de análisis de datos. En síntesis, no solo ofrecen un abanico de temas, sino que también nos presentan una visión de largo plazo que se inicia en siglo XIX y lleva al lector hasta nuestros días. Esto nos permite entender la problemática que ha rodeado a los medios de pago de manera integral. Como resultado podemos obtener una conclusión determinante: en el campo de los medios de pago no hay revoluciones, sino que prevalece la evolución. Bancos de emisión, medios de pago, papel moneda, Chile, issuing banks, means of payment, bank notes, sistema de pagos, cheque, bancos, Estados Unidos, payment system, personal checks, banks, United States, sistema de pagos, cheque, bancos, hogares, Francia, payment system, personal cheques, banks, home owners, France, tarjeta de crédito, medios de pago, bancos, México, España, credit card, means of payment, banks, Mexico, Spain, efectivo, medios de pago, modelos de probabilidad, bancos, Colombia, cash, means of payment, probabilistic models, banks, desarrollo financiero, inclusión financiera, tecnología móvil, banca minorista, África subsahariana, financial development, financial inclusion, mobile technology, retail banking, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), prensa económica; España, El Financiero, España Económica y Financiera, nacionalismo económico, economic press, Spain, El Financiero, España Económica y Financiera, economic nationalism, chemin de fer, réseaux techniques, économie du vin, innovation, développement régional, crise agrícola, railways, technical networks, wine economy, innovation, regional development, agricultural Crisis, historia, turismo, España, Fesit, Sindicato de Iniciativa y Turismo, history, tourism, Spain, Spanish Federation of Endeavour and Tourism Unions, Endeavour and Tourism Unions, industria agroalimentaria, historia de la empresa, Andalucía, siglos XIX y XX, food industry, business history, Andalusia, XIXth and XXth centuries Sun, 01 Jan 2017 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6633 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6619 The effect of different sources of fundining on firm performance: evidence from Chile This study analyses the impact of different funding sources—public and private—on firm’s sales performance, labor productivity, and capital productivity of Chilean firms. We use data from the Chilean Longitudinal Survey of Firms (2013–2019), fixed-effects econometric models were employed for their robustfit and reliability. The findings show that funding through capital and bond issuance positively influences all three performance measures, while supplier credit, non-bank funding, and public funding enhance sales and labor productivity but not capital productivity. Firm characteristics, including age, industrial sector, group affiliation, and export activity, also significantly affect performance, with export activity negatively impacting capital productivity. This research makes a unique contribution by disaggregating funding into distinct categories and addressing a notable gap in Latin American studies, offering detailed insights into the funding-performance relationship in this regional context. Funding, performance, sales, labor productivity, capital productivity Thu, 12 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6619 2026-03-12T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6616 Asymmetric inflation persistence in Latin America: evidence from Chile, Colombia and Peru using quantile autoregression analysis This paper investigates asymmetric inflation persistence in Chile, Colombia and Peru using quantile autoregression on monthly data from 1992–2023. Unlike conventional approaches that assume uniform adjustment speeds, this method captures heterogeneous dynamics across the inflation distribution. Results indicate global stationarity but marked asymmetries: positive shocks display substantially greater persistence than negative ones. The unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected at and above the 60th, 70th, and 80th quantiles for Colombia, Chile, and Peru, respectively, implying that high-inflation episodes endure while negative deviations dissipate quickly. Robustness checks controlling for multiple structural breaks show that persistence declined significantly following the adoption of inflation-targeting regimes and improved macroeconomic management, yet asymmetric patterns remain. Findings are robust to alternative steady-state specifications. The evidence supports asymmetric monetary policy responses and offers practical guidance for central banks. Extended analysis for Brazil confirms the prevalence of these asymmetric dynamics. Inflation dynamics, asymmetric persistence, quantile autoregression, unit root tests, Latin America Wed, 04 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11651/6616 2026-03-04T00:00:00Z