Commuting in unequal cities: the political economy of bus services in Latin America

Abstract

Why do some cities deliver better and more affordable public transportation services than others? This dissertation investigates urban bus systems in major cities of the Global South, focusing on the political factors that have shaped the historical development of these services. By examining the cases of Buenos Aires (Argentina), Mexico City (Mexico), and São Paulo (Brazil), it explores how the affordability and quality of bus services have evolved over time in these Latin American metropolises. In the early 20th century, these cities had bus systems that were quite similar in terms of quality and fare prices for users. However, during the second half of the century, each city's bus system developed differently, resulting in significant contrasts. To address the question of why there are differences in the affordability and quality of urban bus systems among Global South metropolises, this dissertation is organized into three distinct parts. Considering the significant gap in the political science literature on the provision of urban public transportation, the first part of this dissertation proposes a conceptual and analytical framework to characterize, classify, and contrast different bus systems based on their levels of affordability and quality. By intersecting these two dimensions in a 2x2 table, four distinct ideal types of “fare regimes” are identified: inclusive top-notch (high quality and affordability), expensive mediocrity (low quality and affordability), prohibitive high-end (high quality, low affordability), and cheap service trap (low quality, high affordability). This typology of fare regimes forms the foundation for subsequent analyses, facilitating the classification of how each city's bus system has evolved over the last century. For example, Buenos Aires has consistently maintained an inclusive top-notch bus service over the past decades. In contrast, São Paulo has fluctuated between an inclusive top-notch and an expensive mediocrity system, and Mexico City has shifted from an inclusive top-notch service to a cheap service trap. The remainder of this dissertation elucidates how cities with initially inclusive top-notch bus systems diverged onto different developmental trajectories. To achieve this, Part 2 conducts a macro-level analysis of significant episodes that prompted substantial structural changes within the bus systems. The central thesis posits that privatization – the transfer of operations to the private sector – constituted a critical juncture for urban bus systems in each city, fundamentally transforming service standards and power distribution among key stakeholders. I argue that the outcomes of privatization varied due to the distinct coalitions that emerged in each city, with enduring legacies observable to the present day. Employing new historical and qualitative data sets and utilizing comparative historical methods, I demonstrate that city administrations with a technical-bureaucratic orientation, such as São Paulo's, gravitated towards privatization through a formal business model. This approach fostered local oligopolies and resulted in a predominantly prohibitive high-end regime. Conversely, left-wing populist governments, exemplified by Buenos Aires, championed the interests of former bus drivers, thereby sustaining an inclusive top-notch bus system. Finally, corporatist administrations, like those in Mexico City, aligned with groups that reinforced their corporatist foundation, leading to a cheap service trap regime. Finally, Part 3 investigates how recent democratic governments have navigated the enduring legacies of privatization within the urban transportation sector. Amid institutional and political inertia, where private actors possess well-defined interests and positions, I employ Process Tracing and qualitative data from various sources to illustrate that changes in bus systems over the past three decades have been predominantly incremental. Based on the related literature, I argue that these changes have been driven by political-electoral factors influencing service governance as these cities transitioned to democracy in the 1980s and 1990s. In this context, dynamics related to the median voter, partisan politics, credit claiming, and blame avoidance account for the incremental yet significant transformations observed in Buenos Aires, Mexico City, and São Paulo bus systems in recent years. The findings of this dissertation provide significant insights into how political dynamics have historically influenced public transportation policies and outcomes in urban settings. Theoretically, this work contributes to the broader political science discourse on the provision of public goods in major cities, particularly by addressing a topic that remains underexplored in the literature. Additionally, the empirical evidence presented in this dissertation offers insights into how the developmental trajectories of Buenos Aires, Mexico City, and São Paulo can be generalized to other cities in the Global South. This is particularly relevant given that the privatization of bus operations and the transition from authoritarianism to democracy are phenomena observed in numerous cities across the region.