Divided government, deadlock and the survival of presidents and presidential regimes

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the factors that account for variation in the performance of presidential regimes. Performance is understood as longevity of presidential regimes and the survival of presidents and their parties in office, The paper is based on data for all presidential and mixed regimes from 1946 and 1966. I find support for the hypotheses that the electoral system, the timing of elections and the number of parties affect, as expected, the legislative strength of presidents and the likelihood that we will observe divided governments. However, neither the type of electoral system nor the timing of presidential and legislatve elections has any impact on the survival of presidential regimes. Most importantly, deadlock situations, contrary to all expectations, do not have a negative effect on the survival of presidential regimes.

El propósito de este trabajo es brindar sustento empírico y examinar los factores que explican el desempeño de los regímenes presidenciales. El documento se basa en datos de 1946 a 1996 para todos los países presidenciales e incluye también aquellos con regímenes mixtos. Los datos analizados confirman las hipótesis de que los sistemas electorales, el momento en que se celebran las elecciones y el número de partidos afectan el poder legislativo de los presidentes y la posibilidad de que surjan gobiernos divididos. No obstante, los datos muestran que ni el sistema ni el calendario electorales tienen impacto en la sobrevivencia de los sistemas presidenciales.