From fields to classrooms: the effect of poppy supply shortages on school enrolment in Mexico

Abstract

This thesis examines how illicit market dynamics may influence educational outcomes in rural Mexico. Focusing on the opium poppy economy, it analyzes whether drug seizures and declining profitability following the rise of fentanyl in 2015 are associated with changes in school enrolment. Using municipal-level data, the study finds heterogeneous patterns: in more corporatized regions, enforcement shocks correlate with higher enrolment, while in marginalized areas, effects turn positive only after sustained market collapse. The analysis suggests a mechanism in which changing opportunity costs reshape household decisions about schooling. These findings point to the need for further research into how informal and illegal labor markets compete with human capital investment, particularly in contexts of poverty and limited state presence. By framing illicit agriculture as a structured labor market, this study contributes to a broader agenda on education, development, and child labor.