Climate change pathways: adaptation policies in the U.S. and Mexico

Abstract

This study examines the impact of human displacement episodes resulting from extreme events on climate adaptation policymaking in Mexico (Tabasco and Guerrero) and the United States (Florida and Texas) from 2015 to 2023. Using a Qualitative Comparative Approach (QCA) design, 22 semi-structured interviews with government, academic, and civil society actors, more than one hundred policy documents, and internal displacement statistics from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) are triangulated. The comparative analysis reveals three main findings: (1) mass displacement acts as accelerators but not as automatic triggers for legislation; it only translates into regulations when funding, access by social actors, and executive branch support converge; (2) implementation gaps widen with escalation: in Mexico, advanced federal frameworks stagnate at state budgets and municipal levels, while in the US, subnational innovation lacks ex ante federal coordination; (3) Climate mobility is beginning to be institutionalized in international law, as suggested by the UAE-Belém Work Programme on the Global Adaptation Target. It concludes that integrating mobility metrics into financing criteria and official reporting is a requirement for moving from reactive governance to anticipatory adaptation.