Electoral authoritarianism concept, measurement, and theory

Abstract

A large number of political regimes in the contemporary world have established the institutional facades of democracy, including regular multiparty elections for the chief executive, in order to conceal (and reproduce) harsh realities of authoritarian governance. The paper addresses three methodological core issues in the emergent comparative study of electoral authoritarian regimes: the concept of electoral authoritarianism, its observation and measurement, and its endogenous dynamic. In its first section, it offers and justifies a formal definition of electoral authoritarian regimes that looks at both constitutional properties and democratic qualities of electoral processes. In its second section, the paper discusses a fundamental methodological problem: In electoral authoritarian regimes, official election results are the combined outcome of two unknown unobservable variables─popular preferences and authoritarian manipulation. In its third section, the paper analyzes the endogenous dynamic of electoral authoritarianism. It conceives authoritarian elections as "creative" institutions that constitute a certain set of actors (citizens, opposition actors and ruling parties), endow them with certain sets of strategies, and push them into a conflictive "nested game" in which the competition for votes within given rules takes place alongside the competitive struggle over the rules of the game.

Numerosos regimenes políticos del mundo contemporáneo han establecido la fachada institucional de la democracia, incluyendo elecciones multipartidistas para presidente, pero encubren y reproducen duras realidades de gobierno autoritario. De manera creciente, la ciencia política comparada se está volcando hacia el estudio de estas nuevas formas de autoritarismo electoral. El presente texto discute tres problemas metodológicos centrales que enfrenta la examinación empírica de regímenes electorales autoritarios: (1) el concepto del autoritarismo electoral; (2) su observación y medición; (3) su dinámica interna.