Impact of change from the PROGRESA scholarship program to Benito Juárez on the incidence of teenage pregnancy in Mexico

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the impact of Mexico’s 2019 shift from the integrated Prospera program to the education-focused Becas Benito Juárez (BBJ) on teenage pregnancy. Using municipal-level data from 2007 to 2023, it applies a Difference-in-Differences design and an Event Study to estimate causal effects on fertility among women aged 15–19. Findings indicates that municipalities with higher pre-reform program coverage experienced a 15% to 19% increase in teenage pregnancies after the transition. Effects are more pronounced in rural and high-marginalization areas and persist over time. These outcomes may be related to the removal of health services and conditionalities that characterized earlier program designs. In particular, the elimination of school attendance requirements could have reduced the opportunity cost of early motherhood. Taken together, the results suggest that scholarship programs integrating education with health components may be more effective in delaying fertility than purely educational transfers.