The past as future: prior political experience and career choices in Mexico, 1997-2006

Abstract

Using an original dataset of the prior career paths and ex-post political positions of 1,400 federal deputies from three legislatures (1997-2000, 2000-2003 and 2003-2006), this paper presents the first systematic study of political career choices after the democratic transition in Mexico. We find that Mexico’s federal system leads many professional politicians to begin their political careers in the municipal and state political arenas, and then return to their state when the single three-year term in the Chamber of Deputies concludes. The demands of electoral competition in a federal system with no consecutive reelection have strengthened the state and local political spheres because state political bosses control resources and Jobs that ambitious Mexican politicians need to continue their political careers in a highly uncertain context. We find that whether deputies come from the sub-national or national level, her prior political experience has an impact on the future job she aspires to after leaving congress. Our evidence supports the argument that to understand career choices in federal systems with uncertainty because of weak or non-existent incumbency, one should take into account the prior career choices of rational politicians. These measures help capture the network of alliances, obligations and resource control that allow politicians to construct successful careers.

Este documento presenta el primer estudio sistemático de las carreras políticas en México tras la transición democrática. A partir de una base de datos original sobre las carreras políticas de 1,400 diputados federales de tres legislaturas (1997, 2000 y 2003), encontramos que el sistema político mexicano induce a los políticos a comenzar sus carreras políticas en las arenas municipal y estatal y, posteriormente, regresar a sus estados al concluir su estancia en el congreso. La competencia electoral en un sistema federal sin reelección consecutiva ha reforzado la arena política estatal y/o local debido a que los líderes políticos locales controlan los recursos y los cargos que un político racional requiere para prolongar sus carreras políticas en un entorno de gran incertidumbre. Nuestra evidencia indica que, controlando por otros factores, la experiencia política previa, ya sea a nivel local o federal, tiene un efecto en el nivel del cargo al que los diputados aspiran al dejar el congreso. Esto sugiere que la experiencia política previa, usado como un proxy de las alianzas y redes políticas de un político exitoso, es clave para para comprender las carreras políticas en un sistema federal con alta incertidumbre.