Transitions from electoral authoritarianism

Abstract

The recent comparative literature on authoritarian institutions has been tracing the consequences formal institutions bear on the longevity of authoritarian rule. Striving to explain transitions from electoral authoritarian regimes, the present paper shifts emphasis from the presence of institutions (multiparty elections) to the political dynamics and structural contexts that surround them. Under which conditions, it asks, are authoritarian multiparty elections more likely to reproduce the authoritarian status quo? Under which conditions are they prone to produce democratizing outcomes? And under which are they vulnerable to provoke interruptions of the electoral cycle? Drawing upon the larger literature on democratic transitions, the paper proposes a simple (non-formal) decision-theoretic framework that emphasizes the pivotal role of electoral uncertainty, vital interests, and repressive capacities. In its empirical part, it explores the sources of electoral authoritarian transition trajectories on the basis an original dataset that covers (almost) the universe of authoritarian elections in the world from 1980 through 2002.

Elecciones multipartidistas tienden a aumentar la longevidad de regímenes autoritarios, pero también contienen el potencial de provocar cambios democratizadores y rupturas autoritarias. El presente documento examina tanto las condiciones estructurales como las dinámicas políticas que influyen en las trayectorias de regímenes electorales autoritarios. Apoyado en la literatura comparada sobre transiciones democráticas, el documento enfatiza tres factores explicativos: la incertidumbre electoral, los intereses vitales de los actores y las capacidades coercitivas del Estado. En su parte empírica, explora las fuentes de diferentes trayectorias de régimen basado en una base de datos original de elecciones autoritarias en el mundo (1980-2002).