Uncertainty and regime transition: the Mexican experience

Abstract

I will focus in particular on three areas where I expect uncertainty to be widespread during regime transition: I) uncertainty about political stability; 2) uncertainty about future economic performance and 3) uncertainty about political institutions, namely political parties. In the particular case of Mexico, where the same party has governed since 1929, there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding alternation of power, in particular what will happen to political stability and economic performance if the ruling party loses. As Mexican opposition parties have never held national office, voters should then also be uncertain about their likely performance. If voters dislike uncertainty this should benefit the PRI which should be better known than the other parties.